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There is both danger and opportunity in times of crises. For seasoned family business owners/managers who went through many of them and came out wiser, it is a time to be first aware of what has passed:
1970s: Energy Crisis - Oil embargoes/inflation
1980s: Debt Crisis/Cold War End - Latin American defaults/Communism weakens in Europe
1990s: Asian Financial Crisis - In East and Southeast Asia (1997).
2000s: Global Financial Crisis - Housing bubble/Lehman Brothers (2008).
2020s: COVID-19 Pandemic - Global health crisis/supply chain disruptions.
In the case of the Philippines, the 70s reminded everyone of Martial Law, the 80s of People Power, and the 90s of the Asian Financial Crisis.
Not to forget the COVID-19 crisis, which tagged the country as one with the longest and strictest lockdown in the world.
2026 MSME Resilience Strategy Blueprint
Yet, Filipinos and some quality-minded MSMEs manage to pull through all that. Resilience is an asset that should not be undervalued just because it is not quantifiable. Sometimes, it is resilience - that unassuming but strong qualitative value not tangible like gold or silver, that acts as a strong force for good. And it is exactly this that God-fearing Filipino MSMEs capitalize on best.
So, what should resilient Filipino MSMEs do now with the current crisis they are facing?
Common sense dictates not to panic. Stay calm and gather necessary data and information with AI tools for good and wise decisions.
To make informed decisions, gather information regularly on fuel prices.
As of , a news release has reported that fuel companies agreed to divide the rising cost of fuel over several days. This is a staggered implementation, not a one-time big-time price hike. This cushions the impact on all consumers, according to Energy Secretary Garin.
How PH MSMEs can hedge well against rising fuel prices
MSMEs are generally not allowed to stockpile gasoline or diesel without specific permits and proper storage facilities. Storing fuel in unauthorized containers - in drums or "bote-bote" - is not allowed. A business that purchases and stores large quantities of fuel for its own use (not for resale) must be "duly authorized".
Permits are needed. To store fuel, a Fire Safety Inspection Certificate from the Bureau of Fire Protection is required. Also, it may need a clearance from the Department of Energy's Oil Industry Management Bureau (OIMB). But with the necessary permits and clearances, diesel/gas can be stored for a 4-day work week of MSME operations [cf. Downstream Oil Industry Deregulation Act of (Republic Act No. 8479) and the Fire Code of the Philippines (Republic Act No. 9514)].
If your MSME is located in a subdivision or gated community, you can use EV carts amid a diesel hike on .
Delivery schedules can be consolidated to reduce fuel costs per order. Group deliveries by area, or during off-peak traffic hours, to reduce trips and fuel consumption. Ask AI to suggest the most economical routes.
Those with online storefronts can add products that make physical delivery optional, such as downloadable products, digital services, or online consultations/meetings.
MSMEs with a lot of "suki" can also add fuel-adjustment fees in delivery or service fees with tactful and discreet transparency to retain their customers. Adding a special complementary service or gift token of gratitude to make the "suki" feel their importance in the business cushions any fee shock. In PH MSME culture, both business income and the "suki" matter.
Know that adding a gift token creates value and manages the Value Stick taught by Harvard Business School Professor Felix Oberholzer-Gee. The price increase still raises the customer's Willingness to Pay (WTP) through upgrading your service. This ensures your profit 'wedge' remains despite rising logistics costs.
MSMEs can also stock slightly more inventory and other business supplies before anticipated fuel hikes to avoid repeated logistics costs.
Another cost-reduction idea is to collaborate with nearby businesses to share delivery runs. You can also agree with suppliers how you can share 50/50 in absorbing part of the transport cost spikes.
Finally, make your MSME business relationships more practical. Create shorter supply chains. Identify suppliers that reduce fuel-dependent delivery distance to a minimum.
How PH MSMEs can hedge against a rising USD vs. PHP in FX
First move is to monitor the USD-PHP exchange rate weekly and adjust PH MSME product pricing weekly as the peso becomes volatile due to geopolitical conflicts.
For MSMEs serving export markets or OFW-connected consumers, they can diversify payment collection into USD-denominated channels such as PayPal or Wise. PayPal automatically exchanges USD to PHP. This naturally hedges peso depreciation.
Timing is also key in buying in bulk for inventory, relying on importation. Buy imported materials when the PHP strengthens and avoid reactive purchasing. MSMEs can also use AI tools to spot trends in the FX rate and purchase when the USD goes down.
Another alternative is to reduce import dependency gradually by identifying local suppliers for the MSMEs' top imported inputs.
Secondary data can also be useful by tracking the volume of OFW remittances inflow. When remittances surge, this can be a signal of better consumer spending in NCR. An increase in consumer spending signals an increase in demand for your digital storefront's products/services.
How PH MSMEs can hedge against supply chain disruptions
MSMEs can search for digital inventory apps where remote 4-day monitoring can be applied. Try Enstack. It has simple and user-friendly inventory monitoring.
Gathering all necessary inventory data, then work to buffer 2-week stock vs. AI's foreseen/forecasted disruptions.
Use the data from your maps to identify the supply chain's possible points of failure. Identify which suppliers have no alternative to delivery delays, and search for new suppliers that do
Don't react instinctively. Base your decisions on data and information. Maintain a bigger buffer inventory of high products with fast turnover only when the data and information support such a move. Stocking big too early may prove costlier because of reactive restocking.
Build new and good supplier relationships with consistent early payments. In a disruptive business situation, suppliers prioritize their most reliable buyers.
Maintain at least two reliable suppliers for critical materials needed. Don't forget managing customers' expectations; continue to practice transparency and communicate with the MSMEs' "suki" community for possible delivery adjustments.
