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After the reported
7.2% headline inflation, the BSP will now focus on core inflation for its policy rate adjustments. The next scheduled meeting of the BSP is this coming . A policy rate hike is a necessary move to bring inflation down or keep inflation expectations anchored. (see also: 1 & 2 Citation at References section)
2 USD:PHP exchange rate , Friday
Peso appreciates USD 1.00 : PHP 61.5940, ⇑, Php 0.022 higher in value than
, USD 1.00 : PHP 61.616 ⇑, Php 0.068 higher in value than
, USD 1.00 : PHP 61.684 ⇓, Php 0.192 lower in value than
, USD 1.00 : PHP 61.492 ⇓, Php 0.949 lower in value than
BSP Central projections, : Inflation is projected to settle at 3.6% in and 3.2% in , above the 3.0 percent point target. see also: Economic Outlook, BSP Report
Reported by Rappler.com (after rate hike): approx. average of 6.3% for ,
4.3% for (higher than
2% -
4% target)
Other estimates:
3.9% -
5.5% for
In , core inflation increased to a two-year high of 3.9% from 3.2% in and 2.2% last year, . The BSP told BusinessWorld that they are now focusing on core inflation rather than headline inflation to guide their monetary policy decisions. (see also: 7 Citation at References section for difference between headline inflation and core inflation)
6 The Debt-to-GDP Ratio is
65.2% (with a buffer of
34.8%). Although the total outstanding debt of the Philippines is Php 18.49 trillion as of end-, which is a 21-year high, and is projected to hit Php 19.06 trillion by end-, it remains manageable as the economy scales to Php 31.8 trillion. Also, that debt remains smaller than the nation's total economic output, when GNI (Gross National Income) is used. (GNI includes remittances of OFWs). see also: 4 & 6 Citation at References section
7a Consumer and Labor Market Indicators:
Consumer confidence: reduced pessimism from -
22.2% (Q4 2025) to -
15.8% (Q1 2026); +
1.8% forecast of Quarter ahead, +
9.6% of Year-ahead
Credit availability/NPLs: as of , PH Banks NPL ratio is stable at
3.3%; there is strong credit demand from households and enterprises amidst inflation pressures
Labor force survey: as of , unemployment rate eased to
5.0% (from
5.1% in with 2.58 million jobless); employment rate at
95%
Philippine GDP for January-March Q1 2026 growth slowed to
2.8%, trailing its regional peers (see also: 5 Citation at References section)
The Department of Economy, Planning, and Development (DEPDev) is implementing the UPLIFT (Unified Package for Livelihoods, Industry, Food, and Transport) program, to cushion soaring prices (see also: UPLIFT microsite for statistics on "ensuring sufficient food supply" and "keeping food prices within reach")
The latest 91-day T-bill average rate issued on : 5.074%
Electricity cost: Meralco residential rate down to ~ Php 14.3345/kWh this , compared to Php 14.3496/kWh for / Meralco enterprise rates: Business & commercial rates vary by customer class and demand, but generally rates slightly above residential rates.
8 Proxy indicators to regularly monitor for actual inflation:
Fuel prices: expected price increases, Diesel (~Php 0.60 ⇑), Gasoline, & Kerosene, all up ⇑ for Tuesday 6:00 a.m., 5/26/26
PHP currency performance: appreciated but still weak at Php 61.5940 vs USD 1.0 (import cost pressure)
Food (esp. rice): Persistent high prices (~13.7% Year-over-Year in April); PH government imposing price caps under EO 118 implemented nationwide (Php 50.00/kg on all imported rice)
How to transform macro-volatility into a definite MSME ROI
Integrate these proactive steps in prep for BSP rate policy move:
Preserve Core stability by managing staff and working funds against 7.2% inflation and Php 61.5940 weaker Peso
Businesses should Stimulate Progress through strong-yield "makakabawi" moves (tamang diskarte) even as diesel costs rise by Php 0.60/liter
Finally, to Build with AI to last, leverage AI-driven systems to hedge against Q2 2026 stressors and , potential rate hikes
Your MSME Preserve, Stimulate, Build Flywheel
Engineered for Professional & MSME Business Strategies
The Strategy: With headline inflation rate at
7.2% and a probable BSP policy rate hike this coming , make defensive systems thinking moves: preserve core stability, stimulate progress by hedging well against fuel and other operating expenses, and build up a smart team/network that use AI for a lasting enterprise.
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