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After the reported
7.2% headline inflation, the BSP will now focus on core inflation for its policy rate adjustments. The next scheduled meeting of the BSP is this coming . A policy rate hike is a necessary move to bring inflation down or keep inflation expectations anchored. (see also: 1 & 2 Citation at References section)
2 USD:PHP exchange rate , Friday
Peso appreciates USD 1.00 : PHP 61.5940, ⇑, Php 0.022 higher in value than
, USD 1.00 : PHP 61.616 ⇑, Php 0.068 higher in value than
, USD 1.00 : PHP 61.684 ⇓, Php 0.192 lower in value than
, USD 1.00 : PHP 61.492 ⇓, Php 0.949 lower in value than
BSP Central projections, : Inflation is projected to settle at 3.6% in and 3.2% in , above the 3.0 percent point target. see also: Economic Outlook, BSP Report
Reported by Rappler.com (after rate hike): approx. average of 6.3% for ,
4.3% for (higher than
2% -
4% target)
Other estimates:
3.9% -
5.5% for
In , core inflation increased to a two-year high of 3.9% from 3.2% in and 2.2% last year, . The BSP told BusinessWorld that they are now focusing on core inflation rather than headline inflation to guide their monetary policy decisions. (see also: 7 Citation at References section for difference between headline inflation and core inflation)
6 The Debt-to-GDP Ratio is
65.2% (with a buffer of
34.8%). Although the total outstanding debt of the Philippines is Php 18.49 trillion as of end-, which is a 21-year high, and is projected to hit Php 19.06 trillion by end-, it remains manageable as the economy scales to Php 31.8 trillion. Also, that debt remains smaller than the nation's total economic output, when GNI (Gross National Income) is used. (GNI includes remittances of OFWs). see also: 4 & 6 Citation at References section
7a Consumer and Labor Market Indicators:
Consumer confidence: reduced pessimism from -
22.2% (Q4 2025) to -
15.8% (Q1 2026); +
1.8% forecast of Quarter ahead, +
9.6% of Year-ahead
Credit availability/NPLs: as of , PH Banks NPL ratio is stable at
3.3%; there is strong credit demand from households and enterprises amidst inflation pressures
Labor force survey: as of , unemployment rate eased to
5.0% (from
5.1% in with 2.58 million jobless); employment rate at
95%
Philippine GDP for January-March Q1 2026 growth slowed to
2.8%, trailing its regional peers (see also: 5 Citation at References section)
The Department of Economy, Planning, and Development (DEPDev) is implementing the UPLIFT (Unified Package for Livelihoods, Industry, Food, and Transport) program, to cushion soaring prices (see also: UPLIFT microsite for statistics on "ensuring sufficient food supply" and "keeping food prices within reach")
The latest 91-day T-bill average rate issued on : 5.074%
Electricity cost: Meralco residential rate down to ~ Php 14.3345/kWh this , compared to Php 14.3496/kWh for / Meralco enterprise rates: Business & commercial rates vary by customer class and demand, but generally rates slightly above residential rates.
8 Proxy indicators to regularly monitor for actual inflation:
Fuel prices: expected price increases, Diesel (~Php 0.60 ⇑), Gasoline, & Kerosene, all up ⇑ for Tuesday 6:00 a.m., 5/26/26
PHP currency performance: appreciated but still weak at Php 61.5940 vs USD 1.0 (import cost pressure)
Food (esp. rice): Persistent high prices (~13.7% Year-over-Year in April); PH government imposing price caps under EO 118 implemented nationwide (Php 50.00/kg on all imported rice)
How to transform macro-volatility into a definite MSME ROI
Integrate these proactive steps in prep for BSP rate policy move:
Preserve Core stability by managing staff and working funds against 7.2% inflation and Php 61.5940 weaker Peso
Businesses should Stimulate Progress through strong-yield "makakabawi" moves (tamang diskarte) even as diesel costs rise by Php 0.60/liter
Finally, to Build with AI to last, leverage AI-driven systems to hedge against Q2 2026 stressors and , potential rate hikes
Your MSME Preserve, Stimulate, Build Flywheel
Engineered for Professional & MSME Business Strategies
The Strategy: With headline inflation rate at
7.2% and a probable BSP policy rate hike this coming , make defensive systems thinking moves: preserve core stability, stimulate progress by hedging well against fuel and other operating expenses, and build up a smart team/network that use AI for a lasting enterprise.
We welcome your comments or suggestions. Click the button below.
After the reported
7.2% headline inflation, the BSP will now focus on core inflation for its policy rate adjustments. The next scheduled meeting of the BSP is this coming . A policy rate hike is a necessary move to bring inflation down or keep inflation expectations anchored. (see also: 1 & 2 Citation at References section)
2 USD:PHP exchange rate , Friday
Peso depreciates
, USD 1.00 : PHP 61.684 ⇓, Php 0.192 lower in value than
, USD 1.00 : PHP 61.492 ⇓, Php 0.949 lower in value than
All shares | down (-22.16 pts) at 3,371.41⇓ | -0.65%
Financials | down (-43.96 pts) at 1,798.47⇓ | -2.39%
Industrial | up (+.52 pts) at 8,770.02⇑ | +0.006%
Holding Firms | down (-105.31 pts) at 4,419.09⇓ | -2.33%
Property | down (-2.2 pts) at 1,929.89⇓ | -0.11%
Services | up (+47.11 pts) at 3,010.43⇑ | +1.59%
Mining & Oil | down (-472.03 pts) at 18,256.04⇓ | -2.52%
4b PSEi on , Monday, 3:00 p.m. PHT:
PSEi | down (-35.25 pts) at 5,941.52⇓ | -0.59%
All shares | down (-17.28 pts) at 3,354.13⇓ | -0.51%
Financials | down (-18.75 pts) at 1,779.72⇓ | -1.04%
Industrial | down (-44.33 pts) at 8,725.69⇓ | -0.51%
Holding Firms | down (-32.45 pts) at 4,386.64⇓ | -.73%
Property | up (+3.61 pts) at 1,933.50⇑ | +0.19%
Services | down (-14.24 pts) at 2,996.19⇓ | -0.47%
Mining & Oil | down (-626.71 pts) at 17,629.33⇓ | -3.43%
Financials, holdings, industrials, services, & mining/oil fell due to its sensitivity to rates, fuel costs, and growth slowdown. Property (+0.19%) gained because real estate often benefits from higher rents/prices amid inflation.
BSP latest forecast, reported by Rappler.com (after rate hike): approx. average of
6.3% for ,
4.3% for (higher than
2% -
4% target) see also: Economic Outlook, BSP Report
Other estimates:
3.9% -
5.5% for
In , core inflation increased to a two-year high of 3.9% from 3.2% in and 2.2% last year, . The BSP told BusinessWorld that they are now focusing on core inflation rather than headline inflation to guide their monetary policy decisions. (see also: 7 Citation at References section for difference between headline inflation and core inflation)
6. The Debt-to-GDP Ratio is
65.2% (with a buffer of
34.8%). Although the total outstanding debt of the Philippines is Php 18.49 trillion as of end-, which is a 21-year high, and is projected to hit Php 19.06 trillion by end-, it remains manageable as the economy scales to Php 31.8 trillion. Also, that debt remains even smaller than the nation's total economic output, when GNI (Gross National Income) is used. (GNI includes remittances of OFWs).
(see also: 4 & 6 Citation at References section)
7 Additional financial data:
Consumer confidence: reduced pessimism from -
22.2% (Q4 2025) to -
15.8% (Q1 2026); +
1.8% forecast of Quarter ahead, +
9.6% of Year-ahead
Credit availability/NPLs: as of , PH Banks NPL ratio is stable at
3.3%; there is strong credit demand from households and enterprises amidst inflation pressures
Labor force survey: as of , unemployment rate eased to
5.0% (from
5.1% in with 2.58 million jobless); employment rate at
95%
Philippine GDP for January-March Q1 2026 growth slowed to
2.8%, trailing its regional peers (see also: 5 Citation at References section)
The Department of Economy, Planning, and Development (DEPDev) is implementing the UPLIFT (Unified Package for Livelihoods, Industry, Food, and Transport) program, to cushion soaring prices (see also: UPLIFT microsite for statistics on "ensuring sufficient food supply" and "keeping food prices within reach")
8 Proxy indicators to regularly monitor for actual inflation:
Fuel prices: Diesel & Gasoline costs, up; Kerosene cost, down
PHP currency performance: Weak at Php 61.684 vs USD 1.0 (import cost pressure)
Food (esp. rice): Persistent high prices (~
13.7% Year-over-Year in April); PH government imposing price caps
Three concrete defensive moves MSMEs must act on
1 Apply AI tools to manage well funds from loans, apply it to working funds to make MSME operations earn in resilient mode, and anticipate inflation trends before policy rates are hiked this
2 Continue monitoring fuel price adjustments to hedge against the oscillating fuel price threat and to hurdle other rising operating costs that weaken profit margins and equity
3 After headline 7.2% inflation, monitor regularly proxy indicators to hedge against the actual inflation rate this
Your Loan Mgt, Operations to Earn, Holds & Cautions Flywheel
Engineered for Professional & MSME Business Strategies
The Strategy: With headline inflation rate at
7.2% and a possible BSP policy rate hike this coming , make systems thinking moves: manage loans well to earn in operations, hedge against fuel and other operating expenses, and manage working fund with holds and cautions.
We welcome your comments or suggestions. Click the button below.
